Britain will never truly know the coronavirus reproduction number and will have to squash it if they lift lockdown by trial and error, scientists say.

The reproduction number, also called R0 (R-naugh), shows how many people infect the average patient before they recover.

Scientists say that as long as the rate is above one, the outbreak will continue, in order for the virus to spread even faster than one-on-one in one community.

Chief medical officer Professor Chris Whitty said he believes it is currently between 0.5 and one, which means the epidemic is being forced to slow down.

While the government is trying to bring the country out of its current social distance measures, it must mix and match rule changes in a way that does not keep the R0 as low as possible.

Prime Minister Boris Johnson, who is currently chairing his first Cabinet meeting since he is hospitalized with the virus, is expected to confirm the slow rate of infection and promises that he will prevent anything that the infection case can take higher .

One expert told MailOnline that without a vaccine or herd immunity, monitoring human behavior will be the only way to stop the virus from getting out of control.

And widespread testing, contact tracking and tracking the number of people infected will be the only way officials can get a grip on how fast the disease seems to spread, although most tests in the UK will only be a rough idea to give.

The number of people diagnosed with the virus declines over time despite increased testing, which shows that the number of people infected with each patient (the R0) has decreased since it began in March.

Professor Chris Whitty, the chief media officer of England, said at a science committee meeting with MP & # 39; s last week that he thinks the R0 of the coronavirus is between 0.5 and 1

Professor Chris Whitty, the chief media officer of England, said at a science committee meeting with MP & # 39; s last week that he thinks the R0 of the coronavirus is between 0.5 and 1

Dr Jennifer Cole, a biological anthropologist at Royal Holloway University in London, told MailOnline: & # 39; It is not a set number (R0). Some of these depend on & # 39; characteristics of & # 39; e disease, but about 80 percent is due to the behavior behind it.

& # 39; Human behavior has much more impact than biological factors, rather than understanding & # 39; e R0 and what factors affect it, it is important to understand the characteristics that play in & # 39; e R0 and calculate and plan how & # 39; you bring it down. & # 39;

The R0, Dr Cole explained, can never truly be known, because it is fluid. It changes in different areas and different situations.

Mass, detailed tracking of contacts and mapping of local outbreaks would be the best way to work out the R0 of the virus by showing who's spreading the disease and how.

And a wide net of tests that catches people who are mild to no symptoms, such as sick and uninfected, would be the best way to track it over time.

Currently, the United Kingdom does not have one of the two, although it is in & # 39; last week announced plans for random population testing for thousands of people and an army of 18,000 people serving as contacts to track the virus as it spreads.

WHAT IS R0?

Each infectious disease is given a reproduction number, known as R0 – pronounced & # 39; R niche & # 39 ;.

It is a value that does not represent how many people one sick person will infect on average.

WHAT IS THE R0 FOR COVID-19?

The R0 value for SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes COVID-19, was estimated by the Imperial College COVID-19 Response Team to be 2.4 in the UK before the lockdown began.

But some experts analyzing outbreaks across the globe have argued that it could be closer to the 6.6 mark.

Estimates of & # 39; R0 range to & # 39; t the true size of & # 39; A pandemic remains a mystery, and how fast the virus spreads depends on its environment.

It will spread faster in a densely populated city where people travel on the subway than it will in a rural community where people drive everywhere.

HOW does it compare to other viruses?

It is thought to be at least three times more infectious than the coronavirus that causes MERS (0.3 – 0.8).

Mumps is one of & # 39; s most contagious infectious diseases, and has an R0 value of 12 to 18 if left uncontrolled. Widespread vaccination keeps it suppressed in most developed countries.

Chickenpox R0 is rushed between 10 and 12, while seasonal flu has a value of about 1.5.

Why is it important to have a low R0?

The higher the R0 value, the harder it is for health officials who do not control the spread of the disease.

A number lower than one means the outbreak will run out of steam and be forced to an end.

This is because the infected disease will soon hit new victims to strike.

HOW IS A LOCKDOWN DE R0?

Investigation of draconian lockdown of the UK, imposed on March 23, has delayed the crisis of Britain's coronavirus, research shows.

Scientists at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine last month analyzed the virus in & # 39; t United Kingdom.

They estimate that each infected patient now only passes COVID-19 to 0.62 others, down from 2.6.

The team said the virus had difficulty spreading, because people had less contact with others.

They used a survey of 1,300 people who were asked to list what human contact they had in the past 24 hours.

This was compared to a similar survey done in 2005 to give an idea of ​​how it was changed due to lockdown.

These measures should give authorities enough of an idea of ​​the rate of infection to bring the nation out of its current lockdown, Dr Cole said.

This suggests that it will not be possible to emerge from lockdown until these measures are in place.

Mr Johnson is expected to continue the nationwide closure early in June.

& # 39; It's incredibly difficult to calculate without doing so in retrospect, & # 39; she said, explaining that detailed data can show how fast the virus has spread, but these have no relation to the current day.

& # 39; At the moment we don't have the right numbers, but we have a rough idea, and as long as you can tell, the R0 is between one and two, or between three and four, that's wide enough to make the decisions that you should take to keep social distance.

The Imperial College COVID-19 Response Team, some of & # 39; leading consultants of & # 39; e government on & # 39; crisis, placed the average R0 at 2.4 in a paper published before it closed.

This meant that, before Prime Minister Boris Johnson ordered the national closure on March 23, every 10 people who caught the virus would infect 24 others.

Mr Johnson is expected to announce tonight that this number is now below one, in his first letter from Downing Street since he was admitted to intensive care after the capture of COVID-19.

The Prime Minister is expected to extend the lockdown by June and indicate that he has the R0 in & # 39; t the heart of & # 39; a blow will steal, and refuses to do anything that it shot above one.

But he can set a blueprint for factories, construction sites and offices to go back to work, including advising employers to avoid face-to-face meetings and limit the number of people who use canteens, reports the Financial Times.

Professor Whitty told MPs in a Science and Technology Committee meeting last week: "The R we currently have is somewhere between 0.5 and 1.

& # 39; Let's say for the argument that it's in the middle of that range, I think probably, that leaves a little room for maneuvering and some things ticking while still keeping it below 1. & # 39;

Researchers at the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine said in a paper published in early April that they thought the number was 0.62.

They surveyed 1,300 people to inquire about their movements and contacts and to judge how many people they were likely to have infected if they carried the virus.

Government officials are soon expected to take measures to reduce lockdowns, based on their likely impact on the coronavirus reproduction rate.

SAGE, the Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies, led by Professor Whitty and Sir Patrick Vallance, the chief scientific adviser, will advise ministers on how & # 39; various rule changes can change the R0.

And Whitehall is expected to cobble a plan by adding measures, each adding an estimated value it would add to & # 39; e R0 while trying to keep the total number below one.

For example, if people want to get back on buses and trains, it is expected to push higher when parks re-open, for & # 39; people are forced into nearby quarters, where & # 39; they breathe and share each other, which & # 39; t can cover the virus.

closed beaches, while some did not, and (it turns out) beaches did not seem to have much effect on dispersal.

& # 39; Metro & # 39; s still have a big impact on spread. In London the buses closed faster than the buses did and that seems to be the right decision.

& # 39; Instead of rebuilding the Underground, it would be better to bring in more buses. & # 39;

Germany now faces the prospect of revising its restriction restrictions after being left too soon to allow the R0 to rise too far.

The number of new COVID-19 cases there yesterday increased most that it had for four days and Germans have been called to stay home to stop a second wave.

The official department of disease control, the Robert Koch Institute, estimates yesterday that the R0 of the coronavirus in Germany is 0.75. It had been 0.9 on Tuesday.

The RKI estimates its R0 with test figures and comparisons of rolling differences in how many people tested positive for the virus.

It is capable of doing this, because it has a superior testing regime in much of Europe, performing an average of 400,000 tests per week for the past month.

In comparison, Britain conducted 170,000 tests on 120,000 people last week and has done a total of 818,539.

The government is increasing its testing capacity – although it is not expected that its tomorrow will reach 100,000 tests per day – and introduce random population of & # 39; a population in a bid to get a better picture of & # 39; the size of & # 39; e outbreak.

GERMANY ESTIMATES R0 IS 0.75 AS LAND EASES LOCKDOWN

Germany now faces the prospect of revising its restriction restrictions after being left too soon to allow the R0 to rise too far.

The number of new COVID-19 cases there on Tuesday increased the most it had for four days (710) and Germans have been called to stay home to stop a second wave.

The official department of disease control, the Robert Koch Institute, estimates yesterday that the R0 of the coronavirus in Germany is 0.75. It had been 0.9 on Tuesday.

The RKI estimates its R0 with test figures and comparisons of rolling differences in how many people tested positive for the virus.

It is capable of doing this, because it has a superior testing regime in much of Europe, performing an average of 400,000 tests per week for the past month.

In comparison, Britain conducted 170,000 tests on 120,000 people last week and has done a total of 818,539.

Professor Whitty said he believes the country now has antibody tests – which don't show who's already recovered from the disease – that aren't good enough to track how many people COVID-19 already had.

Talking about lifting & # 39; lockdown in & # 39; e science committee last week, he said, & # 39; We will (not) suddenly be able to lift everything, but also, I don't think it is likely that we should remain exactly the current pattern for the indefinite future.

And there is somewhere between those two, and working out exactly what that is, and what the time scale of it is, and what the package is, will be a daunting task for governments around the world, and certainly of course including the UK. & # 39;

Tracking how many people are infected and monitoring the movement of people will be the only ways to keep the virus under wraps until a cure or vaccine is found.

Dr Cole said: & # 39; Bringing the R0 under one is what you need to do for the outbreak to die out. It just dies out because there aren't enough people to pass it on.

& # 39; That also comes with herd immunity and vaccination, but without medical intervention, the way you bring R0 down is for people to stay away from each other. & # 39;

She explained that chickenpox is kept under control by herd immunity – as many people develop immunity as a child then it cannot spread to adults – and measure by vaccination.

But none of these exist for coronavirus yet.

It would take about 62 percent of & # 39; s population to be infected with herd immunity to develop for COVID-19, according to Professor Carl Heneghan of & # 39; e University of Oxford, but there is no guarantee that people will not be able to catch it twice.

Vaccines are in development – notable one made by the University of Oxford is already in human trials and an Imperial College trial begins in June.

& # 39; It's the perfect storm – quite infectious and quite deadly, & # 39; added Dr Cole. & # 39; Most deadly viruses are very difficult to catch and the same most viruses are very mild.

& # 39; If you are a slight irritant, people do not go out of their way to destroy you; if you are very annoying and very deadly they will. COVID-19 is currently sort of in the middle of that.

& # 39; If it wants to survive and not be destroyed, it must make an agreement with nature – they do this by evolving to become less deadly.

& # 39; Swine flu did this and no one really noticed it anymore. This may or may not happen (for COVID-19) before vaccines are available. & # 39;

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