A top coronavirus model predicts that 100,000 Americans will end at & # 39; This summer at COVID-19 will have died – around US death toll the best case scenario of President Donald Trump exceeds 60,000 deaths.
The Network Science Institute's MOBS model at & # 39; e Northeastern University also estimates that by mid-May, there will be about 89,000 deaths if home stay orders remain.
That death toll would increase to more than one million in an unmitigated scenario, according to projections not among those used by the CDC to predict the pandemic.
The director of the institute responsible for the MOBS model, Alessandro Vespignani, estimates that 100,000 will die by the end of & # 39; e & # 39; first wave & # 39; to & # 39; the end of & # 39; the summer.
As of Wednesday, the US death toll is now at 61,000 and there are more than one million infections in the country.
Trump had suggested in recent weeks that 60,000 would be COVID-19's total death toll. He had cited the estimate as a sign of relative success after the White House previously warned that the U.S. could suffer 100,000 to 240,000 deaths.
The Network Science Institute's MOBS model at & # 39; Northeastern University estimates that 100,000 Americans & # 39; died at the end of & # 39; summer to COVID-19. It is also estimated that by mid-May (above) there will be approximately 89,000 deaths if house-to-house orders remain
That death toll would rise to more than one million in an unmitigated scenario, according to projections not among those used by the CDC to predict the pandemic
Pictured above is a comparison of projected average infections through May 1 in scenarios where social distance is followed and where it is not
Another 2,389 Americans died of coronavirus Wednesday after a brief silence in new deaths.
Daily deaths were down in recent days, dropped below 2,000 on Saturday and continued to fall on Sunday and Monday.
Newly registered deaths fell to 1,315 on Monday, the first time daily deaths in the US have been this low since April 5, before climbing again this week.
New cases also spiked on Wednesday with 28,259 new infections, bringing the total to 1,065,245 cases.
Dr Deborah Birx, co-ordinator of the White House coronavirus task force, on March 29 released public models projecting the deaths of 100,00-240,000 Americans, assuming that social distances persisted.
At the same time, they said that epidemiological models initially predicted the worst cases of 1.5 million to 2.2 million American deaths without mitigation efforts such as social distance, hand washing and staying home as much as possible.
Soon, Trump began to speculate that the 100,000 figure was an outside limit. Later he leaned more towards the projection of 60,000.
& # 39; The minimum number was 100,000 lives and I think we will be substantially below that number, & # 39; he said April 10. & # 39; Hard to believe that if you had 60,000 – you could never be happy, but that is much less than we were originally told and thinking. & # 39;
Trump has used the 2.2. million estimates of & # 39; death repeatedly to suggest he has saved millions of lives through leadership that he and other officials of & # 39; e administration say & # 39; was & # 39; decisive & # 39 ;. Trump often cites travel restrictions from China, where the virus originated, and from Europe, where it did not take hold before he exploded in the US, as one of his most important first steps.
& # 39; We did the right thing, because if we didn't, you would have a million people, a million and a half people, maybe 2 million people dead, & # 39; said the president on April 20.
& # 39; Now, we're going to 50, I hear, like 60,000 people. One is too many. I always say that. One is too many. But we go to 50- or 60,000 people. & # 39;
The latest increase in deaths came after the University of Washington Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, often cited by officials of & # 39; e White House, increased their COVID-19 death toll projections for this week.
The model now projects 74,073 Americans will die from the coronavirus by Aug. 4, which is up from nearly 67,000 a week ago and 60,000 predicted two weeks ago. That figure is down from about a month ago when the model projected about 90,000 deaths related to coronavirus in the US.
A COVID-19 Simulator tool developed by Massachusetts General Hospital and Georgia Tech University predicts that current restrictions implemented in several states could show that the US death toll would reach up to 30,000 deaths by August 30.
These models all predict that states will reopen too soon and measures for social distance relaxation will result in even more deaths.
These forecasts by the CDC follow the number of COVID-19 deaths since February and show the estimated deaths in & # 39; e FS in & # 39; show the next four four weeks. All models assume that existing social distance measures will continue, while Columbia University (CU) models make several assumptions about the effectiveness of current social distance interventions.
The University of Washington's Institute of Health for Metrics and Evaluation 74,073 Americans will die from coronavirus until August 4
This COVID-19 simulator tool developed by Massachusetts General Hospital and Georgia Tech University predicts that current restrictions that could be implemented in several states could show that the US death toll would reach up to 30,000 deaths by August 30
THE US STATES THAT DO NOT RE-OPEN:
Montana: Starting May 4th
Missouri: May 4
Maine: Starting May 1st
Ohio: Starting May 1st
Iowa: May 1st
Alabama: As of April 30
Minnesota: As of April 27
Mississippi: As of April 27
Tennessee: Starting April 27
Colorado: As of April 27
Michigan: As of April 24
Alaska: Starting April 24
Georgia: As of April 24
Oklahoma: Starting April 24
South Carolina: As of April 20
Texas: As of April 20th
Alessandro Vespignani, the director of the institute responsible for the MOBS model, told & # 39; Skullduggery podcast & # 39; from Yahoo News that its noises were higher than official noises, and it doesn't count for broadcasts in January and February.
The first American death was recorded on Feb. 29, but recent tests in California indicate that the first death occurred on Feb. 6, with the virus circulating weeks earlier than previously thought.
He predicted that without social distance measures implemented in the US, the number of deaths would have already reached half a million.
& # 39; Any disease surveillance system finds only the tip of & # 39; an iceberg, & # 39; he said.
The increasing death toll means that coronavirus can be more deadly since 1967 than any flu season.
America's worst flu season in & # 39; in recent years, in 2017-2018 when more than 61,000 people died, according to the CDC. The only more deadly flu seasons were in 1967 when nearly 100,000 Americans died, in 1957 116,000 died and the 1918 Spanish flu died when 675,000 died.
At the beginning of March, the prospect was that the coronavirus would kill more Americans than the flu for many politicians not thinking they played the risk of the new virus.
Trump tweeted on March 9: & # 39; So last year 37,000 Americans died on & # 39; a common flu. It averages between 27,000 and 70,000 per year. Nothing is shut down, life and the economy go on. Currently, there are 546 confirmed cases of CoronaVirus, with 22 deaths. Look out! & # 39;
There could be 22 upcoming COVID-19 hotspots in small cities or rural areas in eight states that lift lockdown restrictions, analysis of social media coronavirus posts shows
There could be up to 22 emerging coronavirus hotspots in small cities and rural counties in eight US states that lift lockdown restrictions, data researchers have found.
An analysis conducted by data firm Dataminr used artificial intelligence to examine social media posts related to coronavirus and predict the smaller areas where infections are set to increase.
The company identified the areas based on clusters of public social media posts that did not directly reference, among other things, first-hand accounts of symptoms, siblings that were infected and supply shortage testing.
The small towns as counties – located in Florida, Georgia, Indiana, Michigan, Ohio, South Carolina, Tennessee and Texas – had all seen an increase in the number of posts on social media related to COVID-19.
There could be a maximum of 22 emerging coronavirus hotspots in small towns and rural counties in eight US states that lift lockdown restrictions, data researchers have found
In Florida's Volusia County, there are currently 445 infections. Infections increased there last week by 79. The week preceding cases increased by 123. Posts on social media in this area spiked about two weeks before & # 39; cases increased
Vigo County in Indiana currently has 62 infections. It increased last week by just two infections, but rose by 17 the week before. Social media posts grew about two weeks before cases began to spike
In Indiana's Tippecanoe County, there are currently 95 infections. That is an increase of 36 cases in a week. Social media posts spike about a month before infections increase
Summit County, Ohio currently has 542 cases. The number of infections there increased in the last week with 157 and 91 the week before. Cases began to increase in about a week after posts on social media there, according to the data
The areas where the social media clusters were identified did not yet peak in COVID-19 infections, which the analysis suggested might be emerging coronavirus hotspots.
In most cases, the data analysis shows the increase in posts on social media several days before the number of infections began to rise.
It is consistent with CDC warnings that COVID-19 symptoms may appear two to 14 days after exposure to the virus.
The data used in the analysis is only responsible for infections reported until April 21.
In & # 39; a week since, figures have been released regardless of & # 39; show an analysis that infections are spiked in some of the 22 areas.
All eight of the states in which the 22 areas were identified have either canceled, or have not, decided measures related to coronavirus.
There are two areas in Georgia that reopened last week, which the analysis says are hotspots.
In Chatham County, infections increased last week by 32. The week before saw 25 new infections.
Clarke County saw an increase in 26 infections last week and 14 new cases the week before.
St. Joseph County in Indiana has 602 infections. Falled last week with 160 and 169 in the week before
Polk County, Florida currently has 457 infections after increasing 101 in a week. Infections spiked about two weeks after an increase in posts on social media
Montgomery County in Ohio has 266 infections after increasing with 29 cases in a week. Infections increased about three weeks after an increase in posts on social media
Monroe County, Indiana currently has 122 infections. The number of cases appeared to increase about three weeks after a spike in posts on social media
Manatee County, Florida now has 563 infections. Infections increased by 120 in the past week and 166 the week before. The number of cases appeared to increase about three weeks after a spike in posts on social media
Lucas County, Ohio currently has 1166 infections. Infections increased last week with 313 and 257 the week before. The infections appeared to spike a week after an increase in posts on social media
Lubbock County, Texas currently has 504 infections. Falls increased by 46 last week and 91 in & # 39; the week before. Cases appeared to spike about three weeks after an increase in posts on social media
Infections in Jefferson County, Texas have increased to 288 infections. They have increased by 74 in two years. Infections appeared to increase about a month after social media posts began to rise
In Jackson County, Michigan, the infections have increased to 342. Cases increased by 62 last week and 85 the week before. Infections seem to increase about a week after social media posts started to increase
In Horry County, infections in South Carolina have now increased to 211. Infections appeared to increase about the same time social media posts began to rise.
In Georgia, Gov. Brian Kemp shot one of & # 39; s most aggressive rescheduling plans in & # 39; e FS. Barbershops, gyms and nail salons were allowed to reopen Friday and dinners in restaurant services and movie releases were released Friday to resume Monday – despite warnings that, without sufficient testing, the state could see a rise in infections.
In Charleston County of South Carolina, infections jumped 35 in the last week and 50 the week before.
Greenville County in South Carolina recorded 144 new infections last week and 117 cases the week before.
In Lucas County, Ohio, infections were up 313 last week compared to the 257 cases the week before.
Indiana & # 39; s Joseph County registered 160 new infections last week and 169 a week earlier.
Last month, Dataminr, which tracks real-time data for the United Nations and other companies, correctly predicted 14 states where COVID-19 infections would spike within two weeks.
It comes as a number of states – most in the South and Midwest – lift coronavirus restrictions after weeks of mandatory lockdowns that have thrown millions of American workers out of their jobs.
Public health authorities have warned that increasing human interactions and economic activity could spark a new surge of infections, just as social-distancing measures seem to bring coronavirus outbreaks under control.
Home stay orders issued by executives in the US and subsequent decisions to slowly open economies are in the & # 39; in recent weeks turned into heavily loaded political issues, because the shutdowns have hampered the nation's economy.
Chatham County in Georgia currently has 217 infections. The number of cases appears to have risen about a month after not posting on social media posts
Hidalgo County, Texas currently has 310 infections. The number of infections appeared to spike about three weeks after social media posts began to increase
Greenville County, South Carolina currently has 661 infections. The number of infections appears to increase about a week after social media posts appeared to spike
In Escambia County, Florida, the current number of cases is 485. Cases appear to increase about three weeks after the number of social media posts spiked
Clarke County in Georgia currently has 142 infections. The number of infections appeared to spike about two weeks after increasing social media posts
In Charleston County, South Carolina, the number of infections is currently 438.
Bay County, Florida currently has 70 infections. Cases appeared to spike a month after increased social media posts
Hamilton County in Tennessee currently has 149 infections. The number of cases appeared to spike nearly two weeks after social media posts increased
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