More people can die from coronavirus in nursing homes than in hospitals, according to a University of Cambridge statistician.
Sir David Spiegelhalter made the shocking statement just after the Office for National Statistics released its weekly data showing that thousands of people die from the hospital and are not counted until weeks later.
The professor, a highly regarded statistician and an OBE recipient, said he believes the number of nursing home deaths is still climbing, because government statistics have said hospitals are fatal. He spoke of a & # 39; massive, unusual spikes & # 39; in the number of people dying in nursing homes.
The number of residents dying for one cause or another has almost doubled in one month, from about 2,500 a week in March to 7,300 in a single week in April – more than 2,000 of the last COVID- 19 matters confirmed.
Healthcare Quality Commission (CQC) reports suggest that nursing homes now see about 400 coronavirus deaths each day, on average – a number equal to hospitals in the UK.
Government ministers, pressing on claims that they did not do enough to help nursing homes, insisted that they were & # 39; not being reviewed & # 39; during a shrink to protect the NHS. Environment Secretary George Eustice said of & # 39; tomorrow & # 39; we have always recognized that there was more vulnerability. He denied that more testing would have saved lives.
While deaths were steadily decreasing in hospitals – 586 were announced yesterday, up from 980 at the height of the & # 39; outbreak – nursing homes were still in & # 39; e depth of their crisis. The way data is backdated means that the actual image is unclear, since we currently only have statistics from two weeks ago.
In Scotland, deaths in hospitals now account for only half of the total. National records from Scotland today revealed 2,272 people had died on COVID-19 by April 26. 1,188 of those people died in hospital, 886 died in nursing homes and 198 died at home elsewhere. If the same ratio applies to the UK, the actual death toll could already be more than 41,600 if fatal deaths are not recorded in the hospital.
Health Secretary Matt Hancock promised yesterday that the Department of Health would count and publish deaths from nursing homes for the UK on a daily basis starting today. Professor John Newton, the test manager of the & # 39; government, said the public was a & # 39; should expect substantial & # 39; deaths.
Analysis of data from the Bureau of National Statistics shows that, while the number of hospital deaths is reported to have decreased (blue bar), the number of deaths recorded outside hospitals – especially in nursing homes – has increased (red bar) ). The data used is backdated and counted by actual date of death, which makes them appear more stable than the wrong numbers announced every day by the Department of Health, which are counted by the date that they are registered
The true scale of the crisis in nursing homes has also been masked by a lack of routine testing, which means that thousands of older residents may have died without ever being diagnosed. Professor Newton yesterday said officials had worked on the assumption that if one person tested positive for COVID-19 in a home, then anyone else who developed symptoms would probably have it too and did not need testing.
Professor Carl Heneghan, a University of Oxford medical expert who has researched government statistics, thinks at least one-third of nursing homes have had outbreaks.
Families were devastated for weeks by restrictions that prevented them from seeing well-attended and dying siblings, until rules were recently relaxed to allow people to say goodbye to their loved ones. One caretaker in Peterborough, Laura Dunn-Green, filmed the & # 39; highly emotional & # 39; moment she read a farewell letter to an 86-year-old resident, after it was sent by her granddaughter, who couldn't visit her because of the coronavirus lockdown.
Government ministers now have to dismiss allegations that they left the 400,000 people who did not live in nursing homes in the den the early stages of Britain's epidemic when it focused its efforts on NHS hospitals.
Chief government scientist Sir Patrick Vallance acknowledged this week that Whitehall & # 39; very early & # 39; was told – believed to be in late January or early February – that nursing homes would be a danger zone. The government has been accused of & # 39; shambolic & # 39; and accidental attempts to support the sector since then and the initial death was not announced until March 31.
The number of people who die with the coronavirus in the UK and Wales is about 55 percent higher when deaths are recorded in non-hospitals, according to the Office for National Statistics
The CQC said a total of 4,343 people with confirmed or suspected COVID-19 died in nursing homes between April 10 and April 24 alone.
US statistics released yesterday show that more than a quarter of all COVID-19 deaths occur outside hospitals – by April 17, there were 4,316 non-hospital deaths out of a total of 19,112.
HOSPITAL DEATHS MAKES ALL HALF OF TOTAL IN SCOTLAND
People who die in hospitals but half of the coronavirus deaths in Scotland have revealed data.
National Scotland statistics show that, on April 26, 2,272 people were confirmed to have died with COVID-19
Some 1,188 of these (52 percent) were hospital patients, while 886 (39 percent) died in nursing homes. A further 198 (9 percent) died at home as elsewhere.
The calculation of & # 39; division of & # 39; e health for the UK has so far recorded only deaths in hospital and has included 21,678 of them.
If the same ratio applies to the UK, the actual death toll could already be more than 41,600 if fatal deaths are not recorded in the hospital.
Almost three-quarters of people living in nursing homes have dementia, making them extremely vulnerable, and many have other serious health problems.
It is known that the coronavirus is more deadly for the elderly – People in the & # 39; 80s account for 38 percent of all deaths associated with the coronavirus.
Of the 22,351 people who died on April 17, 8,514 were aged between 80 and 89. A further 3,998 (18 per cent) were 90 or older, and 3,232 (14.5 per cent) were between 79 and 75.
The number of people dying for all causes in nursing homes has almost doubled between March 13 and April 17, from about 2,500 to 7,300. Only 2,050 of the latter were known to have coronavirus, but the numbers are thought to be underestimated.
Professor Spiegelhalter said: & # 39; While COVID's death in hospitals has been steadily declining since April 8, now counting around 400-450 per day, new data from & # 39; The Healthcare Quality Commission showed that last week there were approximately 350-400 COVID deaths in English nursing homes each day.
& # 39; When we add deaths at home, this suggests that there are now almost as many COVID deaths from hospital as in hospital. And although hospital deaths are steadily diminishing, there is still no sign that we are past the peak in nursing homes. & # 39;
Speaking yesterday to BBC Radio 4, he added, & # 39; what is sticking out my neck & # 39; that actually happened more outside hospitals.
As more detail emerges that shows how hard nursing homes have been hit by the virus, the government faces growing pressure to explain its actions and apparent lack of support.
Although nursing homes are not run by the government and many are owned by private, profit-making companies, they house hundreds of thousands of the country's most vulnerable people and have close ties to local councils, which do not include fees. for fees financed, and NHS services.
Data from National Records of Scotland today showed that COVID-19 death rates are almost twice as high as deaths outside hospitals – about 48 percent of & # 39; e deaths occurred in nursing homes or private residences
Politicians have come back against claims that the healthcare sector was overlooked.
Environment Secretary George Eustice told BBC Radio 4 today: & # 39; I do not accept that it was overlooked, but of course there was a real focus on our NHS, to not worry that it might be overwhelming and we want to make sure they have absolutely everything they need.
& # 39; But in the case of nursing homes, we always recognized that there was more vulnerability. & # 39;
Asked if tests that were not previously available to healthcare workers cost lives, Mr Eustice told BBC Breakfast: & # 39; I do not think it is that we have worked very closely with the healthcare sector and they have had very clear protocols in place.
& # 39; To deal with that staff with obviously very vulnerable cohort, the elderly, sometimes people with other conditions, if they do not show symptoms, then they do not need to be at work.
& # 39; Of course, testing helps and we are now able to roll out those tests. & # 39;
Until recently, test head Professor Newton explained, a small number of tests would be performed at a nursing home if there was a suspected outbreak. If a resident or staff tested positive, the outbreak would be recognized and anyone else who became ill would be assumed to be infected but not test.
This has now changed and anyone who doesn't live or work in a home, whether they have symptoms or not, will be able to get a free swab test to find out if they have the disease.
However, Professor Newton said that a & # 39; substantial & # 39; number of people has already died.
He said on LBC: & # 39; We always knew that part of & # 39; There have been cases in nursing homes. Unfortunately, coronavirus affects older people a lot more … there will be a substantial number (of deaths). & # 39;
If Office for National Statistics data is a reliable indicator of what's coming, the total death toll in the country could increase by up to 55 percent.
As of Tuesday, the official death toll of the coronavirus in the United Kingdom stood at 21,678 in Britain, following England, Scotland and Wales announcing a further 586 deaths in hospitals.
But an ONS report showed that the true scale of the outbreak may be 54.6 percent higher, due to the & # 39; A Department of Health does not include people who die outside hospitals.
& # 39; VERY EMOTIONAL & # 39; MOMENT LIVERS READ FAMILY'S LETTER OF DYING RESIDENT
A nursing home worker in Peterborough has recalled the & # 39; highly emotional & # 39; moments when she read a family letter to an 86-year-old woman who died of coronavirus.
Laura Dunn-Green, who works at Philia Lodge Care Home, read the letter to resident Peggy Grainger, whose family could not be with her, because she died on April 13 due to restrictions on coronavirus lockon.
Ms Grainger's granddaughter had written the letter, which told her grandmother how much the family loved her, and Ms. Dunn-Green, who was filmed and read aloud to her patient, said she 39; finished & # 39; was to do that.
The experience was & # 39; highly emotional & # 39 ;, she told ITV News, and was in one of & # 39; e & # 39; hardest weeks of my life & # 39;
Dunn-Green has chosen to move to the home where she works after residents were banned from visiting her siblings.
Laura Dunn-Green was filmed reading a family letter to one of & # 39; s dying residents in the nursing home where she & # 39; s working
She said, & # 39; I moved to & # 39; our first resident tested positive for the coronavirus, so I could be there for residents who & # 39; ll lose their lives, & # 39; we did not know that they would.
& # 39; We did not expect some people to survive, but I wanted to admit that they were not alone. & # 39;
Ms Dunn-Green's story reveals a moving insight into the crucial role that care workers play in managing & # 39; e outbreak of coronavirus, by both caring for some of the & # 39; s most vulnerable people in the country and by giving them human business at a time when they are not allowed visitors.
Home care bosses say the & # 39; government help you & # 39; provided this staff & # 39; shambolic & # 39; and they didn't get enough amounts of protective clothing to stop them from spreading the virus.
Politicians are also accused of underestimating the & # 39; scope of & # 39; e outbreak in nursing homes, with Matt Hancock recently saying he & # 39; trust & # 39; was, about 15 percent of homes had outbreaks, while one boss in the sector brought the figure closer to 66 percent.
The statistics body found that, on April 17, England and Wales had been included 22,351 coronavirus deaths – a significant rise to 14,451 counted by health chiefs. If the same increase – 54.6 per cent – was applied to & # 39; the current UK death toll (21,678), it could mean the actual number of victims in & # 39; e region is of 33,500.
ONS data, which is released each week and provides the only true picture of how many people have died outside hospitals, registered 3,096 COVID-19 deaths from nursing homes by April 17.
This was almost triple the 1,043 total announced the week before, with 2,000 new deaths in the space of a week.
Many of those who die outside hospitals are not tested for the coronavirus while alive, which means that these data show that Britain's outbreak is much larger than it appears, because these people probably not counted in test figures. Some are never officially diagnosed and are only suspected of having the disease.
So many people are killed by the virus that the week from April 11 to April 17 was the deadliest for England and Wales since records began in 1993 and had a death toll (22,351) more than double the annual average (10,497). Four out of every 10 people who died that week were infected with coronavirus.
Mr. Hancock said at the public briefing yesterday: & # 39; From & # 39; Tomorrow we will not only publish the number of deaths in hospitals every day, but the number of deaths in nursing homes and the community as well. & # 39;
& # 39; This will supplement the weekly US & CQC publication and all add to our understanding of how & # 39; this virus spreads day by day, and it will help inform the judgments we & # 39; ll make as we work to keep people safe, & # 39; he said.
The new data will be collected by Public Health England from the USSC and the CQC and will date until the beginning of March. Only test-confirmed cases will be included.
The US will continue to provide the most accurate source of data to anyone who does not mention COVID-19 on their death certificate, whether they were tested or not. The CQC, which regulates nursing homes and hospitals, also includes suspected deaths in a bid to make sure people didn't miss out on tests being unavailable.
This means that both records use a wider network than the NHS – they may include some misdiagnosis, but also include those that were usually never tested.
However, the disadvantage to ONS data is that they are lagging behind and that it takes a long time to record, which means that it is 10 days out of date by the time it is published.
It also does not include Scotland or Northern Ireland, which does not have their own records.
A graph presented by the government at the briefing yesterday showed that an increasing number of people are dying outside hospitals and, in the week to April 17, victims of nursing homes were about a quarter of the total
County Durham has so far the highest number of COVID-19 deaths in nursing homes with 84, followed by Sheffield (79), Birmingham (71) and Liverpool (67), according to ONS data as of yesterday.
And of the 22,351 people who died on April 17, there were 8,514 in & # 39; ages 80 to 89 years old. A further 3,998 (18 per cent) were 90 or older, and 3,232 (14.5 per cent) were between 79 and 75.
Deaths are decreasing on a sliding scale by the younger age groups, with only 38 people in their 20s (0.17 per cent) undergoing illness, along with nine children and teens (0.04 per cent) ).
The Alzheimer's Society said 70 percent of all people living in nursing homes have dementia, making them especially vulnerable.
Director of Charity Policy, Sally Copley, said: & # 39; Although we are not in & # 39; At least surprised, we are still amazed to hear that nearly a quarter of coronavirus deaths in the UK are now confirmed as coming from nursing homes, and still rising every week, exposing the truly growing scale of & # 39; a crisis that doesn & # 39; t happen in & # 39; e nursing homes of our nation.
WEEKLY CARE HOME DEATH COUNT TRIPLES IN ONE MONTH AMONG THE CORONAVIRUS CRISIS
The number of people who die in nursing homes each week has tripled in a month, according to a shock report.
ONS data shows that 7316 deaths were recorded in homes in England and Wales during the week ending April 17 – including 2,050 involving COVID-19.
In comparison, just 2,471 deaths from each cause were recorded in nursing homes in the week ending March 13 – before the crisis in Britain began to spiral.
But the rate has risen in line with the coronavirus outbreak, jumping to 3,769 in Week 14 (March 27-April 3) and 4,927 in Week 15 (April 3-10).
This means that the official death rate for COVID-19 care homes – registered until April 17 – stands at 3,096 in England and Wales.
But the true figure will probably be much higher, if it does not hold a registration warehouse.
For example, separate figures show the number of nursing home deaths that occurred in England until April 17, but registered by April 25 was 3,936.
Meanwhile, the UK's health regulator – the CQC – says the number of COVID-19 deaths in homes is at least 4,300. This tally includes both suspicious and confirmed cases.
County Durham has so far the highest number of COVID-19 deaths in nursing homes with 84, followed by Sheffield (79), Birmingham (71) and Liverpool (67)
& # 39; With 70 percent of people in nursing homes living with dementia, this pandemic is taking a terrible toll on & # 39; e families with whom we work. The government must ensure that every single death is investigated and counted.
& # 39; We know this is a terrible time for those with loved ones with dementia in nursing homes.
& # 39; People die, alone, because & # 39; it is clear that nursing homes simply do not get the testing and protection equipment they were promised by the government. & # 39;
The sharp focus on the healthcare sector comes after Britain's main scientific adviser, Sir Patrick Vallance, revealed that he and other senior scientists are policing very early & # 39; warn about the risk that COVID-19 poses for nursing homes.
Sir Patrick, who is & # 39; chairman of the group along with Professor Chris Whitty, said that she & # 39; s at risk of outbreaks of healthcare and hospital & # 39; flag & # 39; had at the beginning of & # 39; an epidemic.
While hospital warnings a & # 39; mantra & # 39; protect from & # 39; the NHS & # 39; and a shrinkage to buy ventilators and free beds, nursing homes saw no such effort.
The government has been nominated for its lack of support for nursing homes, with no routine testing, no current records on the number of people infected as dead, and & # 39; paltry & # 39; attempts to provide adequate protective clothing for personnel.
Healthcare staff and residents say they & # 39; forgot & # 39; feel and bosses accuse officials of a & # 39; shambolic & # 39; attempt to help nursing homes protect the disease, which is deadly for the elderly in particular.
Sir Patrick Vallance explained how SAGE Monday works in a briefing, saying: "Very early we looked at a number of issues, we looked very early on nosocomial infection, which is the spread in hospitals, and we flagged that as something the NHS needs to think about.
& # 39; We flag the fact that we thought nursing homes would be an important area to visit, and we flag things like vaccine development and so on. So we try to take things in the longer term and deal with the urgent and immediate areas. & # 39;
The SAGE committee, which calls for leading investigators from the United Kingdom and guns through scientific evidence on COVID-19, was activated on January 3 when Sir Patrick became concerned about the outbreak of coronavirus in Wuhan.
It first met on January 22, suggesting that & # 39; very early & # 39; in their conversations probably the end of January as the beginning of February.
The first nursing home death in England and Wales was only officially listed on March 31.
The Director of Clinical Services of Dementia UK, Paul Edwards, said: & # 39; The fact that we are now only made aware of how important this pandemic has affected people who work and live in nursing homes is testimony to how & # 39; # 39; Social care is viewed – close to being held in the same regard as health care.
& # 39; More PPE equipment, access to testing and funding for example would benefit not only nursing homes, but also a wider society; from ensuring residents of nursing homes are protected, to prevent hospital admissions to improve the mental health of families who may not be concerned that their siblings do not have the support they need. t they are needed. It is time that we see social care as part of health care and vice versa. & # 39;
Office for National Statistics data shows that people in the & # 39; 80s and above account for the most COVID-19 deaths of any age group
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